Recently, crypto experts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart stirred controversy by suggesting that XRP has a lower chance of SEC approval for a spot ETF in 2025 compared to Litecoin (LTC), Dogecoin (DOGE), and Solana (SOL).
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Despite these cautious predictions, market sentiment is pushing back. A significant bet on Polymarket, titled “Ripple ETF approved in 2025,” has surged to a 78% probability, indicating growing optimism about XRP’s future prospects. XRP, the third-largest cryptocurrency with a market capitalization of $149.7 billion, is positioned strongly in the market. After Bitcoin and Ethereum secured SEC approval for spot ETFs in 2024, many wonder if XRP could follow suit. The growing interest from fund management firms like 21Shares, Grayscale, Bitwise, and WisdomTree in launching a spot XRP ETF further fuels this optimism.
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Despite these positive signals, analysts remain skeptical. Balchunas and Seyffart place XRP’s chances of securing SEC approval at just 65%, with Litecoin, Dogecoin, and Solana being more likely candidates for approval in 2025.
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READ MORE:
XRP ETF Approval Likely to Take Time, Says Bitwise CIO
Their estimates suggest that Litecoin has a 90% chance of approval, followed by 75% for Dogecoin and 70% for Solana. However, market sentiment, reflected by Polymarket bets, doesn’t fully align with these predictions. For instance, while the bet on a Litecoin ETF approval shows an 84% chance, it has a lower volume than the bet on XRP, indicating that confidence is stronger in XRP’s case. Interestingly, there’s no significant market interest in a Dogecoin ETF approval, with no bets placed for a spot DOGE ETF in 2025.
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