According to a report by GSR Markets, the spot ETF for Solana in the United States could potentially cause the price of altcoins to increase by up to nine times.
The report from GSR, published on June 27, describes Solana as part of the “big three” in the cryptocurrency market and explores the possibility of SOL becoming the next spot crypto ETF to receive regulatory approval in the US.
Interestingly, the report coincided with surprising news from VanEck, who filed an application for a spot Solana ETF on the same day.
GSR, holding a long position in SOL, speculated that the spot Solana ETF would attract 14% of the capital inflow that spot Bitcoin ETFs have experienced since their launch in January.
In GSR’s “blue sky scenario,” the current price of Solana at $145 could rise to over $1,320, with Solana’s market capitalization reaching $614 billion.
In contrast, GSR’s “bear” and “base” scenarios predict that spot Solana ETFs would attract 2% and 5% of the Bitcoin inflow, respectively, resulting in a 1.4x and 3.4x increase in the price of SOL.
The firm noted that these estimates could be even higher if spot Solana ETFs include staking rewards, although staking is not allowed in approved spot Ethereum ETFs. GSR stated:
“Solana is ready for a spot ETF if and when additional spot ETFs for digital assets are approved in the US, and the impact on the price could be the largest so far.”
Despite GSR’s optimistic forecasts, Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas and others believe that significant political changes, such as a new US president and a different chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), would be needed to seriously consider creating a Solana ETF.
The SEC and its chairman, Gary Gensler, have classified SOL as a security in lawsuits against Binance and Coinbase, complicating the path to approval compared to already approved spot ETFs for Bitcoin and Ethereum.
VanEck’s announcement followed a similar submission by crypto asset manager 3iQ for a spot Solana ETF in Canada, which was the first of its kind.