Bloomberg analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart, who are well-known for their insights on cryptocurrency ETFs, have conducted an assessment on the probability of approval for various altcoin-based exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
Currently, Ethereum is the only altcoin with an approved ETF. However, the analysts have examined the likelihood of approval for Litecoin, Solana, XRP, and Dogecoin ETFs.
Based on their analysis, Litecoin has the highest chance of approval at 90%. A decision is expected to be made by October 2, 2025. Dogecoin follows with a 75% probability of approval by October 18. Solana and XRP have estimated chances of 70% and 65% respectively, with their respective deadlines also in October 2025.
The analysts noted that Litecoin and Dogecoin are more likely to be categorized as commodities by the SEC, which could increase their chances of approval. They also suggested that the political landscape could impact future decisions. They mentioned that if the Democrats had won the U.S. election instead of Donald Trump, it may have been less likely for non-Litecoin altcoin ETFs to be approved.
As for HBAR and Polkadot spot ETFs, their applications are still under review and no probability estimates have been provided. The SEC has recently solicited public comments on the proposals for Litecoin and Solana ETFs as part of the evaluation process.