The main concern in the coming days is whether Bitcoin can maintain its current position, especially as it approaches the $60,000 level at the end of the month.
Recently, BTC has dropped below several moving averages, resulting in losses for short-term holders as the price fell below their aggregate cost basis. At the time of writing, the value of the cryptocurrency is hovering around $61,200, reflecting a nearly 5% daily and 9.5% monthly loss.
This has led to a temporary decline in demand, with particular attention being paid to the activity of large investors (whales), as Bitcoin reaches its lowest price since mid-May.
The volatility is expected to increase this week due to the upcoming release of US unemployment data and revised GDP data for the second quarter.
According to popular trader Crypto Ed, Bitcoin appears weaker than expected and is predicted to see further downside. Meanwhile, altcoins are expected to see another 20% decrease.
Another trader, Daan Crypto Trades, has identified critical levels within Bitcoin’s multi-month trading range, suggesting that if the bullish impulse is maintained, a bounce could lead to a retest of the mid-range.
Factors and Market Sentiments
In the second half of the week (June 28), important macroeconomic data will be released, including US jobless claims, revised GDP for the second quarter, and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index for May. These data, especially the PCE, are crucial as they influence the policy decisions of the Federal Reserve (Fed).
Current estimates from the CME Group’s FedWatch tool suggest that the markets expect the Fed to start tapering interest rates in September, which could be a critical moment for cryptocurrencies.
Matthew Dixon, CEO of Evai, predicts that lower-than-expected PCE results could have a positive impact on Bitcoin and other risk assets.
Stocks vs Cryptocurrencies
Despite the poor performance of cryptocurrencies, US stocks are performing better, with the S&P 500 reaching a new all-time high last week. This inverse correlation has puzzled many, as there has been a significant decline in short interest in major exchange-traded funds and a decrease in the volatility index.
One market analyst on Twitter attributed Bitcoin’s sensitivity to the liquidity levels of the Fed, which saw a $140 billion drop last week. The analyst suggests that the current levels may be at or near a local bottom, which could potentially lead to a recovery in cryptocurrencies.
Crypto Market Sentiments
The Fear and Greed Crypto Index, currently at a level of 51, is approaching its lowest levels for 2024, reflecting a significant shift in market sentiments. Analysts at Santiment noted an increased sense of fear and disinterest among Bitcoin traders, which typically precede market rebounds due to whale accumulations.
人們主要對比特幣感到恐懼或不感興趣，因為比特幣的價格在 65 萬美元到 66 萬美元之間。由於交易者不斷投降，這種長期的 FUD 水平非常罕見。比特幣交易者的疲勞，加上鯨魚的積累，通常會導致反彈，從而獎勵耐心。