For Bitcoin to establish a strong upward momentum, key indicators must fall into place, according to the creators of the analytics platform Glassnode.
Jan Happel and Yann Allemann, known online as Negentropic, argue that historical trends suggest Bitcoin’s long-term growth depends on a combination of crucial factors aligning at the right time.
One of the primary metrics they highlight is the Bitcoin Risk Signal, which evaluates the probability of a significant market downturn. This signal is derived from proprietary data, incorporating Bitcoin’s price movements, blockchain activity, and various trading indicators.
The analysts suggest that a sustained rally would require market sensitivity to macroeconomic and on-chain trends, steady expansion of network participation and liquidity, and a minimal risk signal indicating reduced chances of heavy sell-offs.
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Glassnode also notes that a shift in market behavior may be emerging. Since March 11, their Accumulation Trend Score has moved above 0.1, a sign that some investors are starting to buy during Bitcoin’s recent downtrend. While selling pressure still outweighs buying, this could mark the early stages of an accumulation phase.
Another trend they highlight is the slowing pace of capital inflows and profit-taking, as reflected in Bitcoin’s realized cap net position change. This metric tracks the movement of capital into and out of the asset, with positive values suggesting accumulation. Following Bitcoin’s 30% correction, liquidity conditions in both the spot and derivatives markets have tightened, reinforcing the idea that the market is adjusting to a new price range.
Alexander Stefanov
