The crypto market is once again buzzing with speculation about the next altcoin season, but opinions remain divided.
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Historically, Ethereum has often led the charge during altcoin rallies, acting as a catalyst when the market shifts from Bitcoin dominance to altcoin prominence. However, Ethereum’s recent lackluster performance has raised doubts about whether another altcoin season is on the horizon.
Despite Bitcoin maintaining a strong market presence, some experts believe that a robust altcoin season could still emerge. Joao Wedson, CEO of Alphractal, suggests that Bitcoin’s current dominance might actually set the stage for a powerful altcoin rally in the near future. Drawing from past market cycles, he points out that periods of heightened Bitcoin dominance often precede a surge in altcoin activity.
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Wedson notes that while Ethereum’s influence has diminished, altcoin dominance—excluding Ethereum and stablecoins—has remained relatively stable since late 2022. This trend indicates that Bitcoin has absorbed much of Ethereum’s market share, pushing Bitcoin’s dominance to around 62% and combined BTC and stablecoin dominance to approximately 71%. In contrast, Ethereum and other altcoins now make up just 29% of the market.
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Interestingly, Wedson argues that the stronger Bitcoin and stablecoin dominance becomes, the more intense the eventual altcoin season could be. This is because, once Bitcoin’s momentum slows, liquidity may flow back into the altcoin sector, sparking a fresh wave of gains.
Echoing this sentiment, Daan Crypto Trades, a technical analyst, highlights that the altcoin market cap has sharply declined, with Bitcoin and stablecoins overshadowing the rest of the crypto space. He believes that for altcoins to regain momentum, Ethereum needs to recover first. Since most altcoin liquidity pools are based on ETH, a stronger Ethereum is crucial to revitalizing the broader altcoin market.
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Daan advises investors to remain cautious for now, as altcoin rallies are typically short-lived and often follow a clear trend reversal. Once there are signs that Ethereum and major altcoins are regaining strength, it could signal a more sustainable altcoin season ahead.
Alexander Stefanov
