Bitcoin’s next big move will depend more on money creation than on missiles or media noise, according to macro strategist Raoul Pal.
In a recent post, the former hedge-fund manager plotted Bitcoin’s price against the world’s broad money supply (global M2) and found that nearly nine-tenths of the coin’s gyrations over the past three years shadowed shifts in liquidity.
That backdrop offers a simple read on today’s Middle-East flare-up. Reports of Israeli strikes on an Iranian gas hub briefly sent oil futures up more than 7 percent and revived talk of shipping disruptions, yet Bitcoin barely twitched—adding a fraction of a percent while stock futures wobbled.
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Pal’s takeaway: unless the conflict forces central banks to flood or drain the system, digital-asset traders can expect business as usual.
The liquidity lens also explains why Bitcoin has weathered COVID shocks, rate-hike cycles, and election headlines with the same pattern: knee-jerk volatility followed by a grind that mirrors the size of the global money pie.
For investors, that framework is blunt but useful: track aggregate M2. If it expands, the odds still favor higher BTC prints, even if oil prices, war risk, or tweet-storms make the path noisy in the short run.
Alexander Stefanov
With over 8 years of experience in the cryptocurrency and blockchain industry, Alexander is a seasoned content creator and market analyst dedicated to making digital assets more accessible and understandable. He specializes in breaking down complex crypto trends, analyzing market movements, and producing insightful content aimed at educating both newcomers and seasoned investors. Alexander has built a reputation for delivering timely and accurate analysis, while keeping a close eye on regulatory developments, emerging technologies, and macroeconomic trends that shape the future of digital finance. His work is rooted in a passion for innovation and a firm belief that widespread education is key to accelerating global crypto adoption.
