Bitcoin’s recent surge has paused as the market enters a phase of consolidation and risk moderation, according to the latest Week 32 BTC Market Pulse by Glassnode.
While oversold signals and seller exhaustion suggest a potential for recovery, fragile structure and thinning liquidity leave the asset exposed to further downside.
Spot Market: Weak Momentum and Oversold Signals
Bitcoin’s spot market is showing signs of fatigue. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) dropped sharply from 47.4 to 35.8, slipping below its lower bound and indicating oversold conditions. Meanwhile, Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) deteriorated dramatically, plunging from –$107.1M to –$220.0M, pointing to a rise in sell-side dominance.
Spot trading volume also declined from $8.4B to $7.5B, a further sign of reduced participation and cautious sentiment during the price retest below the $114K threshold.
Futures and Options: Leverage Fades, Hedging Rises
In the derivatives space, Futures Open Interest eased from $45.6B to $44.9B, signaling mild position liquidation. Bullish momentum slowed as funding rates dropped 33% to $3.1M, while Perpetual CVD fell even deeper—from –$1.2B to –$1.8B—highlighting aggressive distribution among traders.
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Options markets also cooled, with Open Interest falling 8.4% to $39.8B and volatility premiums tightening as the vol spread narrowed to 16.26%. However, 25 Delta Skew rose above its high band to 5.51%, indicating elevated demand for downside protection and a growing hedge-focused posture among investors.
ETF Activity Slows, On-Chain Metrics Mixed
The ETF segment showed weaker institutional appetite. Net inflows dropped 24.9% to $269.4M, although trading volume climbed 9.9% to $19.8B, suggesting activity remains responsive, albeit cautious. ETF MVRV edged down from 2.4 to 2.3, reflecting slightly lower profitability.
On-chain data presented a mixed picture: active addresses increased 3.6% to 729K, but transfer volume slipped 13.9% to $9.4B, and fees fell 14.4% to $483.2K, reflecting declining network activity. Realized Cap Change remained elevated at 6.3%, indicating that inflows, while cooling, are still meaningful.
Market Sentiment: From Euphoria to Reassessment
Investor positioning appears more cautious. Metrics like Percent Supply in Profit (now 93.6%) and NUPL (8.6%) suggest reduced unrealized gains. The Realized P/L Ratio dipped to 1.9, signaling a pullback in profit-taking behavior.
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Liquidity metrics remain stable, with the STH/LTH ratio at 17.3% and Hot Capital Share at 36%, showing no major shifts in capital distribution.
Outlook: Bounce Possible, But Structure Remains Fragile
While multiple sectors reflect oversold or exhausted selling conditions—offering a potential window for recovery—the market remains fragile. Glassnode warns that without a strong demand resurgence, external shocks or extended apathy could expose Bitcoin to further downside risk.
The transition from euphoric optimism to reassessment is underway, and with both spot and derivatives participants stepping back, all eyes will be on whether buyers return—or if the recalibration continues into deeper territory.
Kosta Gushterov
Kosta has been working in the crypto industry for over 4 years. He strives to present different perspectives on a given topic and enjoys the sector for its transparency and dynamism. In his work, he focuses on balanced coverage of events and developments in the crypto space, providing information to his readers from a neutral perspective.