Bitcoin’s on-chain metrics are sounding an alarm.
The Reserve Risk indicator—widely used to assess long-term holder conviction and price valuation—has once again signaled a potential market top.
According to analyst Darkfost, this signal comes as a large batch of old BTC coins were recently moved, a shift that has historically preceded periods of short-term corrections and price consolidation.
The Reserve Risk model combines metrics like Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) and its momentum (MVOCDD) to evaluate the confidence of long-term holders (LTH) relative to Bitcoin’s price.
When this metric surges—particularly after a large amount of aged coins move—it often reflects growing investor eagerness to offload into strength, typically near local tops. As shown in the latest chart from LookIntoBitcoin, this is the third time MVOCDD has flashed such a warning since 2017. Each prior instance led to a notable price cooling-off period.
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What makes this instance especially notable is the sharp uptick in MVOCDD at a time when Bitcoin remains near multi-year highs. The latest move suggests long-term holders—who historically sell only during strong market euphoria—are starting to reduce exposure. With Bitcoin still hovering above $60K, this shift may imply that institutional or OG wallets are preparing for turbulence ahead.
While not a guarantee of reversal, Reserve Risk has a strong track record of identifying overheated conditions. Traders and investors may want to stay alert. A local top may already be in—unless new momentum overrides historical behavior.
Kosta Gushterov
Kosta has been working in the crypto industry for over 4 years. He strives to present different perspectives on a given topic and enjoys the sector for its transparency and dynamism. In his work, he focuses on balanced coverage of events and developments in the crypto space, providing information to his readers from a neutral perspective.
