The main concern in the coming days is whether Bitcoin can maintain its current position, especially as it approaches the $60,000 level at the end of the month.
Bitcoin has recently fallen below several moving averages, causing short-term holders to suffer losses as the price drops below their total cost basis. At the time of writing, the value of this cryptocurrency is hovering around $61,200, with a daily decline of nearly 5% and a monthly decline of about 9.5%.
This has led to a temporary decrease in demand, with particular attention to the activities of large investors (whales) as Bitcoin hits its lowest price since mid-May.
Upcoming US unemployment data and revised second-quarter GDP data are expected to intensify the volatility this week.
Analyst Perspectives
Popular trader Crypto Ed pointed out that Bitcoin appears weaker than expected and expects further declines.
Good morning!
Back to the desk after a two-week vacation and dreadful public events.
Bitcoin looks weaker than I expected and should see more downside. YT update will come later this morning.
Alts: another leg down of about 20%
Nevertheless, have a great week, everyone!
$ETHUSD
$AVAX
…
pic.twitter.com/XXZTJK8FRy
— Ed_NL (@Crypto_Ed_NL)
June 24, 2024
Meanwhile, another trader, Daan Crypto Trades, identified key levels within Bitcoin’s trading range over the past few months, indicating that if the bullish momentum continues, a rebound could lead to a retest of the mid-range.
#Bitcoin
Reached the golden pocket Fibonacci retracement level.
If there is still bullish hope to push it to lower highs, this is the time.
A rebound should lead to a retest of the mid-range, otherwise a retest of the low range may occur.
Layer by layer
pic.twitter.com/Rdf1lGzuas
-Daan Crypto Trades (@DaanCrypto)
June 24, 2024
Failure could lead to a retest of the range.
Read more:
Bitcoin price falls below $63,000—where is it heading?
Factors and Market Sentiment
Important macroeconomic data will be released in the second half of the week (June 28), including US initial jobless claims, revised second-quarter GDP, and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index for June. These data, especially the PCE, are crucial as they impact the policy decisions of the Federal Reserve (Fed).
The current rating of the CME FedWatch tool
shows
that the market expects the Fed to start cutting rates in September, which could be seen as a critical moment for cryptocurrencies.
Evai CEO Matthew Dixon predicts that lower-than-expected PCE results could have a positive impact on Bitcoin and other risk assets.
Market is waiting for
#PCE
this Friday, the 28th.
#FED
preferred inflation gauge.
I expect the reading to be below expectations
#BTC
#Crypto
#Altcoins
I think other risk assets are higher.
pic.twitter.com/6voFzlKAVr
— Matthew Dixon – CEO Evai (@mdtrade)
June 24, 2024
Stocks and Cryptocurrencies
Despite poor performance in cryptocurrencies, the US stock market has performed well, with the S&P 500 reaching a new all-time high last week. This negative correlation has puzzled many, highlighting a significant decrease in bearish interest in major exchange-traded funds and a decrease in volatility index.
A market analyst on Twitter attributed Bitcoin’s sensitivity to the liquidity level of the Federal Reserve, which dropped by $14 billion last week. The analyst suggests that the current level may be at or near a local bottom, which could be reflected in the upcoming recovery of cryptocurrencies.
Updated chart of the Fed’s net liquidity performance to reflect a significant $14 billion decline this week [Chart 1].
Bitcoin seems to continue to be heavily influenced by the Fed’s net liquidity volatility [Chart 2].
This week, the Fed’s net liquidity dropped by 2.21%, with Bitcoin falling by 4.77%.
Stocks…
https://t.co/e9NsnRaLyY
pic.twitter.com/lkl051BSNx
— Thomas (@TomasOnMarkets)
June 21, 2024
Cryptocurrency Market Sentiment
At the time of writing, the cryptocurrency fear and greed index is at 51, close to its lowest point in 2024, reflecting a significant shift in market sentiment. Analysts from Santiment pointed out that fear and interest among Bitcoin traders typically intensify before a market rebound, especially due to whale accumulation.
Mainly fear or disinterest in Bitcoin as its price ranges from $650,000 to $660,000. This level of long-term FUD is very rare due to constant surrender by traders. Bitcoin trader fatigue, coupled with whale accumulation, usually leads to rebounds, rewarding patience.
pic.twitter.com/WMy3lbdjEB
-Santiment (@santimentfeed)
June 20, 2024
