Due to the strengthening of the US dollar and the technical weakness overshadowing the rising geopolitical risks, oil prices fell.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) maintained above $81 on January 25 (Bulgarian time 19:15), while the variety of oil “Black Swan” remained slightly below $84.5, after reaching its highest level since the end of the month on Monday. The rebound of the US dollar has reduced the attractiveness of dollar-denominated commodities, and Brent crude futures are approaching overbought territory.
However, against the backdrop of global turmoil, crude oil prices still maintained a monthly increase. The Houthi armed forces also intensified attacks on ships near Yemen, Russia accused the United States and Ukraine of missile attacks on Crimea and threatened retaliation.
The recent weakening of the WTI spot delivery price difference, from a reverse drop of $1.15 to 76 cents last week. The implied volatility of Brent crude has increased slightly due to geopolitical risks (including the upcoming Iranian elections), but is still close to a six-year low.
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JPMorgan analysts expect the average price of Brent crude in the third quarter to be $84 per barrel, and are expected to reach $86 in October or November, as global demand is expected to exceed supply. Macquarie analysts have raised their forecast for the third quarter price of Brent crude from $83 to $90 per barrel, anticipating an increase in demand.
Traders are closely monitoring inflation and other economic indicators this week to understand the future direction of monetary policy.
